Odds of a couple regarding several various countries meeting in the a beneficial different nation and you may appointment both [closed]
$\begingroup$ This will depend into the odds of exactly what, exactly. The probability of anyone in the next area becoming Jane? The probability of the individual within the next place are people you recognize? The probability of encountering somebody you understand when when you look at the entire journey? A few of these will vary probabilities. $\endgroup$
$\begingroup$ the possibilities of Jane meeting me personally contained in this a portion of the community at that bnb about go out $\endgroup$
$\begingroup$ Any concern regarding probabilities of actual events requires simplifications and you will assumptions. I am able to ask «what is the likelihood of me writing it opinion» and can even effortlessly respond to $100\%$ (since the and if a great deterministic universe, it actually was bound to happens) otherwise $50\%$ (since I happened to be often planning to create a feedback or not) otherwise $4\%$ (given that I am one of many $25$ people that seen that it question). It’s a very difficult matter you are asking, because there is actually partial pointers. Are nations similarly likely? Are typical rooms in hotels just as likely? $\endgroup$
$\begingroup$ Correct, but may you can see exactly how most of the questions which can be prerequisites for the concern for every single cause almost every other issues otherwise assumptions? What if Jane doesn’t want to pick an Airbnb close to the coastline, otherwise let’s say there are no aircraft in order to Canada? Otherwise imagine if you forgotten your planes ticket? Instead the right design or set of assumptions, the question cannot be responded 🙂 $\endgroup$
So i wish to know the probability of the second circumstances to happen. I’m away from India. Jane(say) is actually from Brazil. I transferred to Canada working five days before as well as have been jumping in one airbnb to another. Jane moves off Brazil so you’re able to Canada to study and you can goes wrong with get in the bedroom near to me personally in the same airbnb. Today Jane and i also are really good friends. Before this event in fact happened, what might was in fact the chances(probability) associated with meeting to take place? I could offer all other information if required. Not in search of an exact address, but about an approximate one.
$\begingroup$ This will wanted billions off assumptions, so many which carry out hardly end up like the original question getting expected. $\endgroup$
dos Answers dos
The chances of you to series of coincidences in the event the specified beforehand of one’s observance which they taken place is quite small. Estimating it can require a lot of presumptions I won’t even try in order to indicate.
This is because you probably did not ask before the big event. Actually, rare things happen non-stop. If the by accident you mutual your B&B having a high red headed guy of Norway with the same first name since your sis that might be surprising – you didn’t understand it perform takes place.
Think about the lottery: the chance that people type of citation tend to winnings was miniscule – many admission usually profit. The master of one to ticket have a tendency to become singled out of the destiny – because you carry out regarding your meeting with Jane. But there are some body around the globe sharing B&Bs that have a particular other person that simply don’t grab notics.
answered during the Ethan Bolker Ethan Bolker 89.4k 6 six silver badges 102 102 gold badges 185 185 bronze badges $\begingroup$
2) What amount of some one your ‘meet’ from inside the say a year. we.e. just how many anybody you get spending time with that it closely (across the street together in the same airbnb). That is likely to be of one’s buy off 10 best? Feel free to offer a different sort of matter.
But maybe that isn’t this simple. elizabeth form of people, move in a comparable groups. Should this be the scenario perchance you need reduce the inhabitants where you was moving away from $thirty six espagnol femmes,300,000$ towards the public stratum. That is a concern to you. It can be a million, $10$ mil or perhaps just a few hundred. You then divide this new yearly quantity of connections by amount on your own public stratum.
I’m doing the analysis more a year it you will be more ten years (higher chance because it advances the numerator) or a visit.